Notes

One note per stream.

Each research stream keeps a standing note: the thesis, where value accrues, the bear case, and the signals we watch. Updated as the view changes.

Artificial intelligence

Training got the headlines. Inference gets the P&L.

The interesting part of crypto stopped being speculative and started being boring.

Demos are cheap. Uptime is the product.

Intelligence is now an energy business wearing a software valuation.

The bottleneck is not discovery. It is evidence.

Procurement is the technology risk.

Categories are lagging indicators of where the money went.