Blog
One argument per stream.
Posts from the desk. Each one takes a position inside a coverage stream, shows the numbers it rests on, and states what would prove it wrong.
Inference is the P&L
Training budgets buy headlines. Margin is decided by what a completed task costs once utilisation is honest.
Stablecoins are a payments business with a float attached
The cryptography is settled. Distribution, corridor economics and regulatory posture decide who keeps the spread.
Uptime is the robotics product
Nobody buys a manipulation policy. They buy a cost per completed task at a reliability threshold.
Power is the binding constraint on intelligence
Interconnect queues, transformers and cooling water gate the buildout long before chips do.
The bottleneck is evidence, not discovery
Computation made candidates cheap. It did not make trials cheap, and trials are the business.
Procurement is the technology risk
The engineering is tractable. The accreditation boundary is where companies die.
Categories are lagging indicators
The most interesting companies are mispriced because there is nothing to price them against.